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Sunday, 28 April 2013

Richard Feynman on the difference between knowing the name of something and knowing something

A friend recently introduced me to this wonderful presentation by the great scientist Richard Feynman.  A winner of the Nobel Prize for Physics, a member of the Manhattan Project, and outstanding communicator (and bongo player), Feynman is one of those people universally acknowledged to be a "genius".

The focus of this talk, which was part of an interview with the BBC, was science education. This became a recurring theme in Feynman's later life, as he felt that most schooling was at best dreadfully dull, and at worst pointless.  In this case, his concerned can be summarised quite neatly:

"I learned very early the difference between knowing the name of something and knowing something."



It is possible to watch this short clip again and again, and take different lessons from it each time.

Feynman stresses the relative unimportance of names and words in learning, and that is an important lesson for those working in systems that tend to prioritise the superficial aspects of knowledge.

But his story also tells of a teacher (his father) who was willing to admit his own ignorance. And in doing so, inspired his son to go out and learn for himself. Learning was not a matter of remembering, but an adventure!

I think, implicit within this short extract of a conversation between the father and son was an introduction to the nature of science.

“I can live with doubt and uncertainty and not knowing. I think it is much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers that might be wrong. If we will only allow that, as we progress, we remain unsure, we will leave opportunities for alternatives. We will not become enthusiastic for the fact, the knowledge, the absolute truth of the day, but remain always uncertain … In order to make progress, one must leave the door to the unknown ajar.” 



Thanks to Ray Askew coach of the great Invicta Gym for introducing this clip to me.
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Saturday, 20 April 2013

On the Duty of Being a Pain in the Arse




When I recently invited people to share their views on the so-called Olympic legacy, a colleague tweeted that she hoped people would remain optimistic in their responses.  Another respondent worried that sports professionals had a tendency to be too negative about issues like legacy, and maybe it was time we all positive-up!

These comments struck me at the time as extremely revealing, entirely reflecting a certain way of thinking that finds a welcome home in central sports agencies and some national governing bodies in the UK, and sometimes elsewhere.

Perhaps it is a natural response to a policy environment that is so unstable.  Some times we are flush with cash, other times not.  Sometimes that cash is directed into the shiny, beautiful world of elite sport, justified with, let's face it, a series of ludicrous claims about benefits tricking down to the dirty, much less glamorous worlds of community sport and school sport.  At other times, sport is hailed as the new public health prescription.  And then, in the blink of a general election, it changes again.




So 'keep smiling and carry on' has become something of a motto in British sport, much as a sense of humour became a defence against the horrors of bygone Britain.  Who can argue with that?  A certain wilful hopefulness has characterised the sports profession for as long as I have known it.

The only problem arises when this chirpy optimism is incompatible with intelligence.  Positive thinking is a worthy strategy, but it should not be at the expense of reason and evidence.  Just as there is a vital difference between an open mind and a whole in the head, there is a difference between constructive optimism and truth-blindness.  And here lies a bit of a problem for sport in UK, and elsewhere.  Criticism of policy has traditionally been as welcome as a fart in a duvet.


Critics are trouble-makers.  Stirrers.  Awkward questions are spoilers.  One senior sport leader used to publicly condemn the 'yes but' folk who could not just accept new schemes and initiatives without piping up and pointing out their potential problems.  The way these poor fools were described and the laughter of derision they inspired made it perfectly clear that, in this context at least, a critical friend was a contradiction in terms.

No UK government in recent times has sought out expert opinion in sport in any serious or meaningful way.  And this applies whether that expertise lies in Universities, sports agencies or professional associations.  From time to time, and out of a sense of grudging obligation, new policy documents are waved at the professional community, and they are warmly invited to send their comments by last Tuesday.  Generally speaking, the people who run sport for a living are seen as obstacles to be overcome, rather than resources to be tapped.

There are many reasons for this situation.  For example, a great deal of money is invested in even the most small-scale schemes, and perhaps those charged with promoting them feel under pressure to defend them too.  A more plausible explanation is that sport suffers and benefits from being politically sexy.  All sorts of people, including the general public, have views about it.  So any sports policy carries with it expectations both of politics and public opinion.  So, some policies need protecting from criticism because they are bullshit (in the sense I have defined elsewhere in this blog: "The bullshitter does not care if he or she is lying or telling the truth; only whether the statement advances a particular objective.  The bullshitter makes claims to persuade, or sell, or convince.  Whether they are true or not is irrelevant.").

Geoffrey Wheatcroft’s account of the most gifted bullshitter of recent history is helpful because it makes the art more real for us:

“Blair isn’t a liar, not in the sense that most of us are.    That is, most of us have on occasion told untruths, usually to get out of trouble of some kind or another .. but we crucially knew what we were doing .. By contrast, Blair is something different, and far more dangerous: he s not a liar but a man with no grasp at all of the distinction between objective truth and falsehood.”

A more recent example of policy bullshit is Education Secretary Michael Gove's repeated calls to increase the amount of competitive sport in schools.  One clue that this is the case is the fact that it was Mr Gove, himself, who was responsible for undermining one of the most effective competitive school sport structures in the world, when he attacked the PESSCL/PESSYP scheme, and especially the School Sport Coordinators role.  Apart from this, I am willing to bet my liver that Mr Gove has never given school sport a second thought since he was a pupil himself (I assume he failed to make any of the teams, and was forced to watch the matches with the wheezy children with notes from Matron).  But he must say something stirring about competition in schools because he is a Tory minister, and that is the sort of thing they have to say.

Of course, open discussion is not a panacea.  It may be that certain issues are too complex to be laid open to genuine discussion, although I have never come across an instance where this applies in sport or education.  Is the bases of ideas and schemes are made clear to everyone, and open dialogue on any problems or concerns takes place, those with greatest influence can be challenged to justify their views all to change them.  And, of course, it may well be that these ideas turn out to be entirely reasonable. The whole point of open discussion and dialogue is to allow all sides to detect errors and correct them, for the greater good. And also that, where changes need to be made, they must emerge from the discussion, and not be made in advance by those with power or control.

This is so radically different from the model assumed by most public agencies in the UK and elsewhere that it might seem naive. When I have asked why there is so little open consultation before new schemes are finalised, I have been told that it would not be practical, and that special interest groups merely slow-up the process of implementation.  In many cases, the special interest groups contain far more expertise then is held by the government and quasi-government agencies, so this position is clearly ludicrous.  Experts only cause "trouble" if they let errors or inconsistencies or nonsense slip by into practice.

If this is accepted, then we need to think again about the importance of discussion and criticism in public discussions of sport.  Those in control need to reflect a little on their own limitations. The rest of us need to step up and take our responsibilities seriously as active participants in the exchange and improvement of ideas.

And those people who we have been told are the most loyal and most supportive, who stand behind policy no matter what, should be exposed for what they are: freeloaders. There is a large numbers of people and groups in the current climate who have identified that compliance is a safe and secure strategy. There are outraged at criticism of any sort, and imply that those disreputable folk who criticise the creators of policy are not team-players. In fact, the opposite is true. These bland, cowardly individuals add nothing to the quality of public discussions. They contribute nothing to learning, and merely act as anchors, resisting change and progress.

Humans, all humans, make mistakes.  We are fallible.  Criticism is the best way we know to put those errors in check.  So criticism is vital.  It should not be merely tolerated; it should be invited, encouraged, and celebrated.  And those who seek to protect their ideas from criticism should be exposed and condemned.




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Saturday, 13 April 2013

Olympic Fortunes - what has been the legacy of London 2012?


A few weeks ago, I asked fellow travellers in Twittersphere about their views of Olympic Legacy.  This was not just a random act of nosiness, as Sebastian Coe had just been given responsibility for the International Inspirations, which seems to be seen by those in power as an important part of the Legacy programme.

For no very good reason, I decided to turn my little survey into a 'Family Fortunes' style affair, and stopped the poll at 100 responses.  As (depending on your age and nationality) Vernon Kay, Les Dennis, Bob Monkhouse or some large-toothed American TV presenter might say:

WE ASKED 100 PEOPLE …. WHAT HAS BEEN THE LEGACY OF LONDON 2012?

It is important to recognise that this is not in any way a scientific study. The aim of the survey was simply to take a snapshot of people's views, and those people formed what researchers called a self-selected sample. In other words, it would be a mistake to assume that the hundred people surveyed here work in any way representative of the population as a whole.

On the other hand, this strong dose of humility ought to be partially balanced against the likelihood that (since the survey was promoted mainly through my Twitter-feed) most respondents worked in or near sport, in one way or another.  So, perhaps they could claim some special insight into the matter.

I lack the computer skills (and inclination) to offer an interactive reveal of the findings.  And maybe that is not necessary and the results are fascinating enough.










The results are what politicians might euphemistically call "disappointing". 65% of respondents claiming that Olympic Legacy commitments have been based is a rather damning report card, although a figure of less than 10% claiming that commitments had been met is possibly even worse!

Respondents were also invited to make a comment about the Olympic Legacy, and a selection of these responses has offered below.  I have decided not to organise them, but rather let them speak for themselves as individual contributions to the debate.



Is it too soon to be able to measure this yet?

Clearly some legacy commitments are quicker to achieve than others, and rightly so, it shouldn't just be a flash in the pan process. Others will take time such add the cycling cross rail development in London. Others will take time to realise success or failure such as the impact on school sport and participation rates. Dispute the gloom mongers we can't judge too soon, whilst she same time those with responsibly at all levels must remain focused on the legacy cause and steadfast in their approach to achieve legacy commitments.


It will take 10 years to make the population level changes, as young people 'inspired' mature and adults inspired stay involved.

Lack of commitment in the run-up to the Games and a lack of imagination.

I feel strongly that the olympic "legacy" has been very much missed. The thrust of Sport england's initatives are currently 14-25 (at best a difficult age group to engage) - we need to make a concerted effort to (re)introduce "sport" in all its forms to primary school children.

The jumping on the back of other programmes is not a London Legacy. These seems to be little, if anything, that has actually been inspired by L2012 rather than programmes that were in operation already that L2012 has given a polish to.

Much of the legacy aspiration is in talking up something that had never been planned properly in order to ensure that it was achieved. It is now simply and mereley government and organisational rhetoric with no substance at all.

The interest was created in the initial aftermarth of the games, where many people had the drive and motivation to be more active, the amount that have carried that on and the reasons behind that are at presently up for discussion. So a kind of half way house. Personally I believe that as well as what hasdn't been done, what has and what has been effective should be extended / researched.

Issue is twofold - people see the legacy as creating new gold medal winners whilst others see it as a way to address the health of the nation. If the health of the nation was improved dramatically but we got no gold medals in Rio would people be happy with the legacy?

Nothing has really changed outside the east end of London, kids still do to little exercise and are mainly driven to school by their parents The only thing that has really changed is that i have a set of good memories!

Strategy has focussed on activity provision at local level - more of the same. However, what I believe we need in UK is a cultural shift i.e believing, thinking and then doing Health Sport and Education considered in a holistic fashion with investment looked at broad terms not segmented in historical silos and competition on who gets what and why We need all of the spectrum of physical activity, sport and physical education provision If we were starting again we would take an alternative and somewhat radical view of how our current provision is deployed.

All talk and no action.

Cuts completely undermine this. Look around at local level posts of people who have had an impact on youth participation and how quickly they are disappearing.

Not enough investment and activity following the Games to make a meaningful impact from grass roots to elite sport.

I think many factors contribute towards a succussful legacy, from participation rates, regeneration of London, improved and accessible facilities to the nations attitudes towards sport and eachother. This is why it seems almost impossible for us to know if there is a legacy, and how positive the legacy is. The question of timing also needs to asked, at what point do we draw the line and collect data to determine if we have a legacy or not? And if we do that, what do we do as a result of the information. We could celebrate what has been achieved and continue to develop it, or just admit defeat and maybe hope that the best is yet to come. I think a lot of positives have come from the Olympics and Paralympics which is why I believe we are nearly there with the legacy. The main priorities of legacy need to be integrated into the roots of sport to ensure that we have infact inspired a generation, and the next one and the next one … A lot more needs to be done to integrate into a society a culture of physical activity and healthy living to ensure the Olympic legacy is positive, and long lasting.

Sport in school was cut when the Tories came in and no way of making it better has been worked out.

Now that the games are over there is no sign of any legacy. I see no additional attempts to persuade or indeed help fund young people to have ago at new sports.

If anyone mentions actual 'legacy' within months of the games, that's like saying there is a Wimbledon legacy as tennis courts fill up for a fortnight.

So much promise to start with, new facilities, new passion and new opportunities but it seems it was just a phase and now we are left to be independent again and the Olympics is 'put to the back of the draw' as to speak. Would the 'legacy' not indicate continuation and additional effort such as primary school specialists and coaching? Maybe not, maybe the inaccessible arenas will motivate the nation.

Games that inspired a nation but the 'dream legacy ' is an unfulfilled one .We need some government backing, some decisions and some drive. It’s all there. 2012 proved that. But unless something is done - it will all be - a dream.

Most people talk about the Olympics that amazing summer last year... But that's it! No legacy. I thought school would be bombarded with Legacy projects in the new term ... But nothing. The momentum, I fear, has been lost.

It appears that it is all talk and no action. In fact if what we read is true it is going backwards with the selling off of playground space, no expectation of sport and physical education and cuts in funding.

I believe that despite all the percieved good the Olympics have done for participation in Sport, they are still an out-dated institution where able-bodied and disabled competitors are segregated. They also focus on the competitor over any of the other important roles that make the games, events and sports happen, ignoring the whole community of practice as it were. 


It would be great to receive further commentary on this important issue via Twitter (@DrDickB).





Wednesday, 6 March 2013

2012 Legacy: where do we stand so far?

I recently saw this news item from the excellent International Platform on Sport and Development that Loe Coe, architect of the London Olympic Games, has been appoint as chair of the newly formed international sports development charity International Inspiration.



I was luck enough to be in Portland, Oregon or week or so ago when Coe gave an impassioned speech on the importance of building on the undeniable sense of excitement from the London Olympics and Paralympics.  He was a great communicator, and most of those present had no idea that many of Coe's claims continue to be a matter of heated debate in the UK.

Some people feel that the legacy is now a lost opportunity.  Others that government cuts undermine any potential ambitions.

So perhaps Coe's appointment brings a timely sense of leadership?

This is the rest of the story.

The organisation has been formed through a merger of the II Foundation (IIF), the charity established in 2009 to deliver the London 2012 international sport and social legacy programme, International Inspiration, and International Development through Sport (IDS), a charity founded in 1990 to foster the development of and access to sport in developing countries, initially in southern Africa.

Coe said:
It is an honour for me to be appointed chair of International Inspiration. I am delighted that, through the work of the II Foundation, chaired by my friend and colleague Sir Keith Mills, the promise I made in Singapore back in 2005 has led to millions of children experiencing the inspirational power of the Games. This venture is an opportunity to be involved personally in making sure that the legacy of London 2012 benefits the youth of the world for many years to come, and that the UK continues to blaze a trail as a global leader in enriching lives through sport for development”.

I'm keen to find out what you think about this issue, and have the simplest of surveys for you to complete.  I'll publish the results in a later blog post, along with some of the comments made in the box below the question.

Thank you in advance for your contribution (and please encourage others to have their say, too).



Create your free online surveys with SurveyMonkey , the world's leading questionnaire tool.
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Friday, 21 December 2012

Mr Gove's and Mr Hunt's Party Games



By a judicial mix of luck and judgement, the last English government arrived at a cluster of policies for Physical Education and School Sport that set England apart from almost every other country in the world.  They were not perfect, of course, but compared to the situation around the world – where PE is often twilight subject undermined by poor facilities, badly or untrained staff, and minimal central support – our PE teachers found themselves in the unfamiliar situation of being relatively happy.  


The Physical Education, School Sport and Club Links / Young People (PESSCL / PESSYP) scheme drew together a range of initiatives like School Sport Partnerships (SSP) and Gifted and Talent PE and Sport (G&TPES) that evolved over a period of ten or so years into well-designed, well-delivered programmes that benefited millions of children.  And the last national evaluation for G&TPES judged the scheme to be the best in the world.  I know this because I directed the study.  We identified many problems, including the old familiar of wildly inconsistent practice in primary schools, but we also reported highly sophisticated methods in some schools, and a general pattern of good practice.

In light of the fact that most countries’ school-based talent development strategies lie somewhere behind blind luck and voodoo, the English approach provides a rare and slightly uncomfortable source of pride!

And then things changed.  The new government immediately started closing schemes and changing income streams.  SSPs were blocked, and ripples of uncertainty spread across the country.  Since then other schemes have closed, and it is accurate to say the England no longer has a strategy for school sport.


The unveiling of a £100m government school sport policy designed to combat criticism over the Olympic legacy has been delayed due to a dispute between the health secretary, Jeremy Hunt, and the education secretary, Michael Gove.


The standoff between the Health and Education departments over a replacement for the £162m school sport partnerships controversially axed by Gove in 2010 has caused them to miss a pre-Christmas deadline to announce the new scheme.

It had been hoped the strategy would be unveiled this week, coinciding with announcements on investing £492m in grassroots sport and £347m in elite Olympic sports ahead of the Rio Games in 2016.



The use of the word ‘strategy’ is interesting, isn’t it?  The word usually refers to some sort of plan or forethought.  But it is clear that the Government’s proposals are merely policy fluff designed to pacify the armies of Olympians who condemned the casual killing of a sporting legacy.



And thank heavens for the athletes, as the plaintiff cries of teachers, parents and advocacy groups were simply ignored.

But we should not expect matters to return to the way they were.  The funding for schools has been cut, and many of the most successful programmes have been either cut or reorganised.  The real problem, though, is the almost total absence of evidence or consultation behind the new policy.  The quite substantial body of research into effective practice, and especially into inspiring hard-to-reach groups though sport, seems not to have been touched.  Instead, we hear ill-informed ministers parroting simple-minded nonsense of the urgent need for ‘more competition’.

Does it matter?  Of course it does.

Evidence of increasingly high levels of sedentary behaviour in both children and adults means genuine cause for concern.  Nike’s recent ‘Designed to Move’ report told of an reduction of physical activity levels around the world, and including the United Kingdom.




Inactive children and adults are not just denied the joy of movement and play.  They are also vulnerable to increased risk of a host of chronic diseases, such as obesity, heart disease and diabetes, and are deprived of the most effective and cost-effective method for developing effective overall functioning, including intellectual performance, psychological and social well-being.


PE and school sport are the only experiences of physical activity available to every child.  So, the importance of the school as a setting for being active, for learning sporting skills, and for developing talents is unequalled by any other context.

School sport is a political football (apologies for the pun!).  And it deserves better, as it is too important to leave to the egos and ignorances of politicians.  The Government uses the language of evidence-based policies without subjecting itself to its discipline.  Instead, they rely on lazy presumptions and an ideologically driven vision of sport that as out-dated as it is impotent.



Sunday, 18 November 2012

TALENT DEVELOPMENT AND THE LUCK PROBLEM



INTRODUCTION


Interest in the identification and support of the most talented sports players dates back many years, and presumably can be traced to the points in the ancient past when individuals were selected to represent their group or state in competitive activities.  Certainly, strategies to predict and promote outstanding performance emerged from the formative years of scientific approaches to sport, and continue to the present day, when rewards for elite performance is often extreme (Abbott, et al, 2002; Miller and Kerr, 2002).  In comparison, talent within the context of school physical education has been rather overlooked, with guidance amounting to little more than a suggestion that the teacher directs their most able students towards the nearest community sports club (Bailey and Morley, 2006).
This is starting to change in the UK, however, as recent years have witnessed a radical change in both policy and practice related to the development of our most talented young people in schools, supported by significant financial investment.  The UK Government has recently made clear its expectation that schools identify and develop 'Gifted and Talented' (G&T) pupils in all curriculum subjects, including 'Physical Education and Sport' (DfEE, 2000) as part of its Excellence in Cities scheme (DFEE, 2000).  The G&T strand required schools to identify the most able 5 and 10% of pupils, and to provide them distinct curricular and extra-curricular programmes.  Through this scheme, the Government aimed to bring about “the largest culture shift of any part of the programme” (ibid., p. 16), towards an education system in which excellence and outstanding achievement were identified, developed and celebrated.  Implicit within this stated aim was an attempt to deflect a predictable charge: “The idea that all children had the same rights to develop their abilities led too easily to the doctrine that all had the same ability.  

The pursuit of excellence was too often equated with elitism” (DFEE, 1997, p. 11).  This difficult balancing act of articulating a vision of schooling in which high ability was celebrated and supported, whilst deflecting accusations of elitism has become a running theme in advocacy statements from politicians and their agencies (Miliband, 2004a; Eyre, 2004b), as it was when Prime Minister Tony Blair first offered his vision of G&T education:“We believe that people should be able to rise by their talents, not by their birth or advantages of privilege. We understand that people are not all born into equal circumstances, so one role of state education is to open up opportunities for all, regardless of their background. This means we need to provide high standards of basics for all, but also recognise the different abilities of different children, and tailor education to meet their needs and develop their potential.” (Tony Blair, 1996, cited in Eyre, 2004a)

Since then, there has emerged a supplementary scheme to promote specifically and uniquely the development of talented students i in Physical Education through its luxuriantly funded Physical Education, School Sport and Club Links scheme (PESSCL; DfES / DCMS, 2003).  Launched in 2002, PESSCL involved eight initiatives aimed at raising levels of participation.  Alongside an explicit G&T strand, the scheme offered a range of other forms of support for talented players, such as a National Competition Framework, the appointment of dedicated Competition Managers in schools, progressively more selective ‘multi-skills’ clubs, academies and camps beginning in Primary Schools, and a host of new jobs with a clear talent identification remit, based at the new Specialist Sports College (Flintoff, 2003; YST, 2004).  These strategies are intended to supplement the existing talent development frameworks already in place in National Governing Bodies for Sport.  So, the elements are put in place for spotting talented children early (during infant school, apparently) and “squeezing” them through a joined-up school-and-club system, towards elite sporting success (Campbell, cited in Kay, 2005).



TALENT DEVELOPMENT

Taken together, these strategies and initiatives represent ‘the English Model’ of G&T education (Eyre, 2004a), which offers, or aspires to offer, a coordinated approach to the support of the most able students from all backgrounds so that they might fulfil their true potential (ibid.).I do not wish to examine the details of these specific strategies and their implementation (see, for example, Bailey and Morley, 2006).  Rather, I would like to consider some of the implicit assumptions that characterise much of these discussions of high ability among policy makers and their implementers:
  1. That there are talented students who are qualitatively different from the rest of the school population;
  2. That it is relatively easy to spot these talented students;
  3. That early prodigious performance tracks to elite adult performance;
  4. That the point of talent development in Physical Education is preparation for elite adult performance.
The first statement seems, depending on who says it, to be either a metaphysical claim about human nature, or, more commonly, a folk pedagogic theory (Bruner, 1996).  This is not a point on which I wish to linger, apart from to say that empirical research suggests that it is an extremely widely held view among coaches and teachers (Gagné and Nadeau, 1985).  Interestingly, it is a less commonly held view among the athletes and students themselves, who tend to emphasise the central importance of practice, parental support and mental toughness (Durand-Bush & Salmela, 2002).

With regard to the second claim, it is worth noting that, to date, guidance materials both from central governments and their emissaries (like the Youth Sport Trust in the UK) is almost solely concerned with the provision for and support of talented young people, and barely mention their identification, at all (Dismore, Bailey and Morley, 2005).  In other words, teachers and coaches are given lots of ideas for what to do with their talented youngsters; it is apparently taken for granted that they know who they are in the first place.  But this is a highly dubious assumption, since a host of environmental factors, such as family, peers and schooling, mean that a significant number of potentially talented children are never able to realise their potential because they have never been presented with the opportunities to do so (Perleth, Schatz and Mönks, 2000).  If you have never played tennis, or have never been given the necessary support, encouragement and licence to develop even its rudimentary skills, any ability you might otherwise have exhibited will remain undiscovered.On the third statement, I simply suggest that it is not the case:
  • The vast majority of young people identified as talented do not go on to elite, or even sub-elite, careers (Abbott, et al, 2002);
  • Conversely, many adult elite performers were not identified through the standard talent pathways, nor were they precociously gifted as young children (Bloom, 1985).
As for the fourth claim – physical education as a preparation for elite adult sport, what can one say?  One might accept elite sports performance as one possible beneficiary of a comprehensive and effective physical education curriculum, without subscribing to the view recently expressed to me by a local government council leader – in a meeting about the future of school physical education in the region – “let’s be honest; we’re talking about more medals”.  David Morley and I recently informally surveyed UK National Governing Bodies for Sport, asking about the total number of representative places they were able to support, either through professional status or through funding in amateur sports.  We extrapolated that only 0.001% of the current school population could possibly reach the highest level within one of these sports.  If adult elite sport is the goal of physical education, it is an extraordinarily inefficient goal.


So, there are certain empirical difficulties with the English model.  There is also, I think, a serious philosophical problem, which I will call the “Luck Problem”.

SLICING UP LUCK


I need to be a little cautious in my use of the word “luck” in this context.  The word is used in a dazzling variety of ways.   Perhaps the best-known discussion of luck in the philosophy literature is from a pair of articles, both called ‘Moral Luck’, by Thomas Nagel (1979) and Bernard Williams (1981), in which they comment on the Kantian notion that morality must be independent of luck in some sense.  Both suggest that it is basic to our intuitive moral sense that what people are morally responsible for cannot depend on mere luck.  Dennett (1984) criticises both Nagel and Williams for taking the concept of luck for granted, and this seems a fair criticism, since a host of typologies have subsequently emerged which highlight Dennett’s assertion that luck is a curious and treacherous concept.  Susan Hurley (2003), for example, distinguishes between ‘thin’ and ‘thick’ luck, with the former being the “inverse correlate of responsibility’; in other words, it refers to those things for which an individual is not responsible: “What is a matter of thin luck for an agent is what he is not responsible for, and what he is responsible for is not a matter of thin luck for him” (Hurley, 2003, p. 107).  Thick luck, on the other hand, is not simply the inverse of responsibility.  Rather, if something is a matter of thick luck it is a somewhat open question whether an agent is responsible or not for it.  An example of this might be a lottery.

approach of slicing up luck is as follows (cf. Lippert-Rasmussen, 2005; Statman, 1993):
  1. Resultant Luck – the outcomes of our actions are affected by luck.  E.g., training to be a philosopher of sport just prior to the sudden creation of a number of appointments in the area;
  2. Circumstantial luck – the circumstances in which one acts introduces luck.  E.g., by chance, a young athlete finds himself attending a club run by an expert coach for a certain sport, and his career benefits as a result of this.
  3. Constitutive luck – luck affects the kind of person you are.  E.g., some long distance runners and cyclists have freakishly low resting heart rates, and because of this, it makes sense to say that they were genetically lucky, within the context of cycling or running.
  4. Antecedent causal luck – there is luck in the way one’s actions are determined by antecedent circumstances.  E.g., children born into ‘sporty’ and supportive families are more likely to be motivated and better prepared to engage with sport than those who are not so fortunate ii.
In light of a list like this, one might argue, as does Nagel (1979) that, when we add up these different types of luck, that we are faced with an apparent paradox: on the one hand, it is suggested that we can be held responsible only for what is under our control; on the other hand, when we add up these different types of luck, the space that is left over that is free of luck seems to shrink “to an extensionless point” (p. 35).  Eventually nothing seems to be left within our responsibility!

Yet another way of thinking about luck, which highlights what I think is the central issue at stake is that of Dworkin (1981) and Cohen (1989) who distinguish between ‘brute’ and ‘option’ luck.  Option luck refers to that for which we are responsible, by choosing to take risks, for example.  But we are not responsible for brute luck.  There is a significant body of literature within egalitarian and social justice theorising that suggests that their most fundamental aim is to neutralise luck (Roemer, 1998; Arneson, 1989).  And this has predominantly been taken to mean brute luck (Cohen, 1989).  In other words, egalitarians aim to neutralise the influences on distribution for which we are not responsible.



LUCK AND TALENT DEVELOPMENT

So, why is this relevant to the discussion of talent development?  It is because the whole presentation of the UK Government’s agenda, from its formal introduction in 1998, to the present day, has been within a discourse of social justice and equality.  While there are fairly obvious instrumental arguments for developing our talented youth – such as providing society’s future champions, leaders or innovators - none of these is not the formal, explicit justification, which is summarised by Haight (2004, p. 1): “Issues of distributive justice informed government policy in locating the main funding for Gifted and Talented education in areas of social, economic and educational deprivation”.It might be strange to suppose that the demands for equality and social justice can be met by a policy that only ever intended to reach, by the government’s own reckoning, 5% of the school population (www.nagty.org.uk).  But that is certainly the claim being made.  

The head of the centrally funded National Academy for Gifted and Talented Youth characterises her ‘English Model’ in terms of “equality, social justice, meritocracy” (Eyre 2004a, p. 3), suggesting that it “gives a much better deal for gifted and talented generally and at the same time tackles the social justice agenda” (2004b, p. unpaged).

Interestingly, egalitarian theorists do have something to say about the relationship between talent and equality, but it is somewhat different than Blair, Eyre, et al, imply.  This is because, from the social justice perspective, “the fundamental distinction for an egalitarian is between choice and luck in the shaping of people’s fate” (Cohen, 1989, p. 907), and talent is attributable to luck.  For example, Dworkin (2000, p. 92) argues that differences in wealth generated by differences “traceable to genetic luck” are unfair, and discusses a hypothetical insurance device that, on the one hand, neutralises “the effects of differential talents”, and on the other is insensitive to the different ambitions people have in their lives.  Likewise, Cohen (1989, p. 907) writes that “anyone who thinks that initial advantage and inherent capability are unjust distributors thinks so because he believes that they make a person’s fate depend too much on sheer luck”.

Often implicit in these sentiments is the equation of talent with genetic advantage.  Thus Loland (2002, p. 68) suggests that “Abilities develop to a certain extent according to genetic programming in all ‘normal’ human beings.  This genetic programming can be ‘read’ from the genome ...”.  Consequently talent is to some extent a matter of luck. Effort, commitment and dedication to an activity are not accountable in terms of luck.  

So, temporarily putting to one side the fact that one’s present level of talent reflects past effort, and that one’s level of effort reflects, to some extent, good or bad luck (Rawls, 1971) iii, it is possible to summarise the relationships between talent, luck and rewards to the individual as follows, by considering the success of four individuals, with different endowments of talent and who invest different amounts of effort into a certain task (cf. Hurley, 2003; Roemer, 1996).


Effort: workaholic (W)
Effort: slacker (S)
Luck: talented (T)
Best off
2nd Best Off
Luck: untalented (U)
3rd Best Off
Worst Off

 Table 1: Relationships between Luck, Effort and Rewards


The difference between being a member of T and U is a matter of luck.  The difference between being a member of W and S is not.

How might this relate to matters of social justice?  According to Roemer (1996), distinctions of this kind form the basis of our judgements about how to redistribute justly.  If, as is assumed by this position, differences in effort ought to be rewarded, but differences in talent should not, we are in a position to identify a ‘luck-neutralising’ distribution (Lippert-Rasmussen, 2005).  To illustrate this, we might consider again our four hypothesised individuals, who are blessed with different levels of talent and who invest a different amount of effort into their shared activity.  How might they be rewarded by an egalitarian, luck-neutralising policy?


Luck
Effort
Unadjusted Rewards
Luck-neutralising distribution of rewards
1
Talented
Workaholic
40
30
2
Talented
Slacker
30
20
3
Untalented
Workaholic
20
30
4
Untalented
Slacker
10
20

 Table 2: Luck-neutralising distribution associated with talent and effort



Individuals 1 and 3, despite different levels of talent, put in the same amount of effort and get the same level of reward. The same is true of individuals 2 and 4.  The rewards for 1and 3 are highest, reflecting their higher levels of effort.


The advocates of the UK’s approach to G&T education seem to share the view that talent is, to some extent, the result of brute luck.  David Miliband (2004b), when Minister responsible for Schools, said that talent is “randomly distributed” among the population, whilst Prime Minister Tony Blair (1996, cited in Eyre, 2004a) somewhat self-contradictorily stated that “we believe that people should be able to rise by their talents, not by their birth”, but ultimately came down in favour of a luck-based view of talent when he concluded that “we need to … recognise the different abilities of different children” (unpaged).


The UK government’s policy of providing additional or enhanced opportunities for the most able pupils, that is, opportunities that are not available to the rest of the school population, seems to turn the luck-neutralisation equations on their heads.  In fact, they actually result in luck exaggeration because they reward something for which individuals are not responsible.


Consider what this might look like in terms of the equations of redistribution, used above.  Once again, we have our four individuals, with different levels of talent and effort.


Luck
Effort
Unadjusted rewards
Luck-exaggerating distribution of rewards
1
Talented
Workaholic
40
45
2
Talented
Slacker
30
35
3
Untalented
Workaholic
20
15
4
Untalented
Slacker
10
5
Table 3: Luck-exaggerating distribution associated with talent and effort

In this scenario it is talent that is rewarded rather than effort.  In other words, the redistribution of rewards favours those already benefiting by luck: advantage is mounted on advantage; those untouched by talent are left untouched by the redistribution of rewards.  In other words, the consequences of the UK government’s ‘English Model’ of talent development seem to be precisely the opposite of those one might expect of a strategy founded on a social justice philosophy.


TALENT, LUCK AND SOCIAL JUSTICE

I have not sought to argue against the advocates of talent development in their policy of seeking to support G&T young people.  Nor am I suggesting that talent development is wrong or indefensible, in some way.  I accept that there are other forms of justification for such provision that are not vulnerable to my central argument (Bailey and Morley, 2006; Winstanley, 2006).  Rather, I am questioning the justification of such actions primarily in terms of egalitarianism and social justice political theory.  It is not difficult to see why these advocates have turned to social justice: such claims are made as rhetorical ripostes to what is presumed to be the critic’s immediate line of attack: talent development is elitist (Ball, 2003).  This rhetorical strategy seems to underlie ex-Secretary of State for Education, Estelle Morris’ complaint that “Britain has always confused elitism with excellence” (2002, unpaged iv).  Likewise, the government’s National Academy for Gifted and Talented Youth report: “Ideology has played a part .. in that making special provision for G&T pupils is commonly constructed as elitist in academic discourse” (Campbell, Eyre, Muijs, Neelands and Robinson, 2004, p. 2 v).


The language of equality and justice, in this context, seems to be little more than adopting ‘success words’ to ward off attacks, by using words and phrases with which many of the likely critics would associate.  But that will not do.  Since we are talking about policy that relatively disadvantages the great majority of young people (and will absolutely disadvantage them in a context of constant sum of rewards), a rather more complete justification is required than has been offered to date.



ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

A version of this article appeared in the journal 'Sport, Ethics and Philosophy'.



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FOOTNOTES

i In this paper, ‘G&T’, ‘talented’, ‘gifted’ and ‘very able’ are used as synonyms.
ii Typologies luck are, as might already be apparent, rather numerous and sometimes incommensurable.  However, it is worth adding to the mix reference to the work of Rescher (1995), who, who distinguishes between pure chance, which cannot be predicted and controlled (like genetic variation) and forms of luck that merely seem unpredictable and incontrollable due to ignorance.  I mention Rescher’s work because it seems to have influenced Sigmund Loland’s (2002) nuanced discussion of the role of luck in sports competitions.  Whilst this discussion does not relate directly to the concerns of the present paper, it might be reasonably be supposed to be of interest to many of the same readers.
iii The empirical difficulties of separating ability from effort is not as problematic for the present discussion as it might first appear, since the analyses that follow are based on those aspects of performance / outcome for which individuals can be held responsible and those for which they cannot.  Much the same applies to the insuperable empirical difficulties of factoring out environment conditions from genetic ‘dispositions’ when discussing athletic performance.
iv Indeed in this short speech, she distances herself from charges of elitism seven times!
No evidence is given in support of this bold claim.  Empirical research with both teachers (Bailey, Tan and Morley, 2004) and pupils (Morley, Cobley and Bailey, 2006) do not offer support for the assertion of elitism is confused with excellence.